Monty Hall, except Omega replaced the car with a million dollars if it predicts you won’t switch doors

then you open the door and BOOM it’s a fuckin’ trolley

Omega Hall Trolley Problem

Before the Problem begins, Omega uses godlike predictive power to find out whether you are a Switcher or a Stayer.
Omega presents you with three doors.
Two of the doors, if picked, will cause a trolley is to run over five people.
Behind the third door, there is another trolley.
-If Omega predicted you are a Switcher, it will run over ten people.
-If Omega predicted you are a Stayer, it will run over one person.

Having picked a door, Omega now reveals that one of the doors you didn’t pick would have been a Five-Person door.

Should you switch or stay?

this is horrible and I love it


switch: (-10 * 2/3) + (-5 * 1/3) = -8.333…
stay: (-5 * 2/3) + (-1 * 1/3) = -3.666…

Somebody fell into my trap!

In this variation it is 50%, not 2/3rds.

…rereading the problem, i think it is unclear. could you restate the problem with particular care for your pronouns and antecedents?

and then, could you explain how it is not 2/3rds, because i’m not even sure that’s where my confusion is. i don’t see it.

You got the 2/3rds from the Monty Hall problem (MHP).

This, despite looking an awful lot like the MHP, is not the MHP

I’ll remove the superfluous trolley/omega bits and write the not-MHP down.

  1. The Nonty Hall Problem
  2. On a game show, a contestant was offered a choice of three doors. Behind one door was a car, behind the other two were goats.
  3. After the contestant had selected a door, Nonty opened a different door, revealing a goat. Nonty offered the contestant a chance to change his selected door to the other, unopened, door.
  4. Would a door switch have improved the contestants chances of selecting the door behind which a car was hidden?

This is not the Monty Hall problem. In the Monty Hall problem, the answer is “Yes, from 1/3rds to 2/3rds.” In the Nonty Hall problem, the answer is “No, there is a 50% chance of receiving a car no matter which of the two un-opened doors that is selected.”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s